New $335,000 deal secured for Rail Vision: is the stock a gold mine or a money pit?

Rail Vision Ltd. (Nasdaq: RVSN) has just announced that it has secured a $335,000 follow-on order from a prominent Latin American mining company.  Should you buy the stock now, or is a reverse split on the cards? 

Are mining trains in Latin America the future of Rail Visions commercial viability?

The good:

·Rail Vision Ltd. (Nasdaq: RVSN) secured a $335,000 follow-on order from a major Latin American mining company.

·The order is for Rail Vision’s MainLine system, following a successful long-term trial in challenging conditions.

·This marks a significant commercial milestone and reflects the company’s growing traction in Latin America.

The bad:

·This deal follows a long-term trial, suggesting a lengthy sales cycle and potential barriers to quicker adoption.

·The focus on Latin America, while promising, may expose Rail Vision to regional economic or political volatility if commercial diversification isn’t achieved.

Rail Vision is a company that has hardly enamoured itself to its investors. Currently, the number of shares outstanding as of June 3, 2025, is 51.99 million. At the end of 2023, the company only had around 2.99 million shares outstanding, therefore around 49 million new shares have been issued since then mainly through equity financing activities such as the establishment of an equity line facility, likely in a bid to raise capital. This significant dilution has likely forced downward pressure on the share price, which is now around $0.37 per share.

Now the real question is, what is Rail Vision's revenue growth prospects and how much will they need to generate in annual revenue in order for to justify a $1+ share price tag? Based on their current market cap of $19.2 million, they would need to increase their cap by $33million.

That's not all they need to get themselves out of hot water. Rail Vision need to be able to signal sustainable growth to investors, which may take the form of announcing larger contract deals or a form of recurring revenue.

Given their significant shareholder dilution and present share price, we anticipate at least one or two reverse splits before the company is able to sustain revenue growth and signal confidence to its investors that it is a viable long-term investment. For now, we expect more violent swings and unpredictability which is more suited to short-term trades than long-term investment.

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